Economic News 2025: Market Trends, Inflation, and What to Expect

🌏 Global Economy & Growth Outlook

IMF Updates Stable Forecast
The International Monetary Fund revised its global growth estimate to 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, reflecting resilience despite trade disruptions and U.S. tariffs. Growth is modest but broadly in line with past decade averages.(IMF, Reuters, Reuters)
Emerging Markets Doing Better Than Expected
The IMF raised its 2025 GDP projection for emerging markets to 4.1%, driven in part by stronger-than-expected performance in China.(The Guardian, Reuters)
Weaker Growth in Developing Countries
Projections show many developing economies will grow around 3.8%, slowing global per-capita income growth and raising concerns about job creation.(World Bank, Morgan Stanley)

U.S. Inflation Rises in June
Tariff-related price increases pushed inflation higher. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, Heating PCE inflation remains a concern.(Reuters)
Food Inflation on the Rise
Consumer food costs rose 0.3% from May to June, with a 3% year-over-year rise—driven in part by restaurant and grocery inflation. The USDA forecasts food price increases of 2.9% across the full year.(bls.gov)

Fed Holds Rates, Signals Caution
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50%, with no firm commitment for cuts. Officials cited wage stagnation and inflation risks tied to tariffs. Market expectations for a September rate cut have dropped significantly.(Reuters)
U.S. Labor Shows Wage Growth Stagnation
Wage growth remained modest at 0.9% for Q2 2025, well below expectations, easing concerns about wage-led inflation.(barrons.com)
Fed Projections Flag Stagflation Risk
Fed economists raised concerns over a possible mix of rising inflation and slowing growth, projecting inflation at around 3% and unemployment to rise to 4.5% by year-end.(investopedia.com)

Markets Unfazed by Fed—not Tariffs
Equity markets rose on strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft, though inflation trends and unclear Fed signals are moderating enthusiasm.(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)
US Mortgage Rates Dip Slightly
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage eased to 6.72%—modestly lower than last week, but still keeping housing activity sluggish.(apnews.com)

Oil Prices Fall Sharply
Oil recorded the steepest drop in three years, down over 6%, amid tariff worries and increased OPEC+ supply/output levels.(en.wikipedia.org)
Tariffs Continue to Reshape Trade
Tr ump’s aggressive trade policies—affecting trillions in goods—are reshaping international trade dynamics. Economists warn of higher costs for consumers and weakening global growth momentum.(washingtonpost.com)

Theme	Implications
Global Growth	Moderate growth around 3%; emerging markets continue to outperform
Inflation Pressure	Tariffs add to inflation, wage stagnation limits CPI risks
Monetary Policy	Fed remains cautious; rate cuts may be delayed until fall
Market Sentiment	Tech earnings boost sentiment but inflation and tariff uncertainty remain
Commodities	Lower oil prices may ease some inflation short-term